Chicago Sees COVID Cases Climb as Health Chief Says Major Surge Unlikely

Illinois recorded its largest single-day COVID-19 case total in almost a month on Tuesday, two weeks after the state's numbers began trending upward. The Illinois Department of Public Health reported 1,798 new infections, the most since March 11.

The rebound has been sharper in Chicago. The city's average daily case count has risen 33% from a week earlier, with roughly 284 people testing positive each day. Cases have been climbing since March 21.

Even so, Chicago Public Health Commissioner Dr. Allison Arwady described the situation as "nothing alarming at this point." She attributed the small rise to the BA.2 subvariant and said she expects the trend to look more like the Alpha and Delta periods than the "out-of-control" surge the city experienced during Omicron in early January.

Arwady said during an online Q&A that the increase was not unexpected. BA.2, a more transmissible form of Omicron, is becoming the dominant version across the country, and more people have stopped wearing masks. Gov. J.B. Pritzker ended the statewide indoor mask mandate on Feb. 28.

"We expect to see this gradual increase continue for the near future but we're not seeing signs of a major surge," she said. She noted that the city's seven-day average positivity rate is 1.6%, up from 1.2% the previous week. That is a modest change in line with increases in Northeast states, which have often shown surge signs before the Midwest, and far below the double-digit rates now affecting parts of Europe. "With each passing day, I feel more confident that we will be able to evade a very large surge right now," Arwady said.

Severe outcomes remain low, though those figures usually lag case increases by a few weeks. Illinois hospitals were treating 546 coronavirus patients on Monday night, the highest number since March 21 but about 93% below the pandemic peak earlier this year. The state has averaged 12 COVID deaths per day over the past week, down from 13 the week before. In Chicago, hospitalizations and deaths are near pandemic lows, with about eight new hospital admissions and fewer than one death daily on average.

Arwady voiced concern about vaccination rates among Black Chicagoans. About 62% have received a shot, compared with 85% of Asian and Asian-American residents and roughly 76% each of Latinx and white residents. "These are our best protection against serious outcomes, such as hospitalization or death," she said.

Nationwide studies have found that unvaccinated people are 21 times more likely to die of COVID than people who are fully vaccinated and boosted.

Residents looking for a vaccine can visit chi.gov/covidvax or call the city's COVID-19 hotline at 312-746-4835.